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© The Process Group
Vol. 5, No.2 August 1998
When you choose consultants, be picky. Consider the following criteria:
There is no need to settle for second best.
----Neil Potter
by Mary Sakry
If your project (software product or process improvement effort) is plagued with problems, you might need effective risk management.
Risk management is similar to performing preventive health care and buying insurance for your project. It involves identifying potential problems (risks), analyzing those risks, planning to manage them, and reviewing them.
On the last page of this newsletter, we have provided you with a copy of our risk process. It is simple, effective and takes 60 to 90 minutes.
Risk Identification
To identify risks, we must first know what one is. When people begin performing risk management, they often start by listing known problems. Known problems are not risks. Risks are potential problems. During risk identification you might notice some known problems. If so, just move them to your current problems list. Then concentrate on future potential problems.
Risk identification can be done using a 30-minute brainstorming session. Be sure to invite anyone who can help you think of risks. Be creative and invite the project team, customers, people who have been on similar projects, and experts.
Example risks are: "We may not have the requirements right," "The technology is untested", "Key people might leave," "Their server won't restart in situation X," "People might resist the change." Any potential problem or critical project feature is a good candidate for the risk list.
Risk Analysis
The purpose of analysis is to set priorities and determine where to focus the risk mitigation efforts. Some of the identified risks are unlikely to occur and others might not be serious enough to worry about. During analysis, you will discuss each risk item to understand how devastating it would be if it did occur and how likely it is to occur. Most people use a rating system (see process) to help select the most important ones to work on.
For example: if you discussed the risk of a key person leaving, you might decide that it would have a large impact on the project, but that it is not very likely. The risk items that have a high likelihood and a high impact will typically be the ones to select.
Risk Management Plan
There are two things one can do to manage risk. The first is to take action to reduce (or partially reduce) the likelihood of the risk occurring. For example, some part-time process improvement teams make their deadlines earlier and increase their efforts to minimize the likelihood of team members being pulled off the project due to changing organizational priorities. In a software product, a critical feature might be developed first and tested early.
Second, we can take action to reduce the effect if the risk does occur. Sometimes this is an action prior to the crisis, such as the creation of a simulator to use if the hardware is late. At other times it is a simple backup plan such as running a night shift to share hardware.
For the potential loss of a key person, for example, we might do either of two things: 1) We could plan to reduce the impact by making sure other people become familiar with that person's work or 2) To reduce the likelihood of attrition, we could give the person a raise, or provide daycare.
Risk Review
You will want to review your risks periodically so you can check how well mitigation is progressing. You can also see if the risk priorities need to change or if new risks have been discovered. You might decide to rerun the complete risk process if significant changes have occurred on the project. Many people incorporate risk review into other regularly scheduled project reviews.
Risk Management Process
1. Determine scope of the risk session.
2. Select the team and moderator.
The moderator explains the risk process to new team members.
3. Identify risks (potential future problems)
-new, or new to the team (e.g., development tools, target machine)
-such as the timely delivery of a vendor's database software, creation of translators, or a user interface that meets the customer's needs
-such as loss of key staff, missed deadlines, or error-prone software.
Current problems should be treated as problems, not risks.
4. Analyze risks.
-If necessary, split into separate risk items, e.g.,
- Disk may overload under condition Y.
- What would the consequences be if this risk item did happen?
5. Plan to mitigate risks.
6. Review risks.
Risk reviews can be incorporated into existing project status and phase reviews.
Update the list based on risk review
sessions.
(C) 1998, The Process Group, All rights reserved.
by Neil Potter
Service providers within a company often struggle
when measuring their effectiveness. This article
will describe two ways to measure the effectiveness
of groups such as a Software Engineering Process
Group (SEPG), Process Improvement Team or Software
Quality Assurance group. Here I will use the term
"process team" to refer to any type of process
service provider.
Two simple, but commonly overlooked measures
are:
- Customer evaluation of the process team's performance
- The improvement results of the organization
The premise behind these measures is that a team providing the process services is fully responsible for the quality of the service provided and shares responsibility for the improvement results when those services are used.
Customer Evaluation of the Team's Performance
A customer evaluation form can be used to determine the effectiveness of a process team. Some examples of when you might evaluate your performance would be at the end of moderating a peer review, teaching a risk management process, conducting a requirements gathering session, or helping someone do statistical analysis. The form can be used for one session, or at the end of a group of sessions.
The average score for the Overall Session Rating (item #6) can become one data point in a spreadsheet that records the team's performance over time (see graph).
If you are feeling queasy about obtaining your customers' opinion of your performance, realize that this piece of data will give you the most direct feedback about your current effectiveness. Knowing how you are doing is the quickest way to improve.
Improvement Results
A second way to determine a process team's effectiveness is to look at the improvement results of the organization since the team started.
A process team needs to share the responsibility for the organization achieving its improvement goals. Example improvement goals include:
The primary owner of these goals should be the senior manager of the development staff. The process team should have partial responsibility, not sole responsibility. The assumption is that any one group can cause an improvement program to fail, but no one group can ensure its success.
In summary, the effectiveness of any service group can be measured. A customer survey is an immediate measure and helps a team improve its performance. Improvement results are a measure of the impact a group has, and should be jointly shared with the senior manager of the organization.
Thank you for using the process team for this session. We would be grateful if you would complete the following questionnaire. This will help us improve to better serve your needs.
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Philip Crosby wrote Quality is Free in 1979 and I falsely expected this book to be primarily an updated version of that book. If you haven't read the original, I would still recommend reading it before this one. It is more useful if you are trying to understand and apply Crosby's ideas to your organization.
If you want to learn about Mr. Crosby's philosophy and career, this new book is the better choice. A few chapters are repeated, but most of the material is new. It gives you a good idea of what it was like for Mr. Crosby as he began trying to move organizations from a quality-control perspective to a quality-management perspective. This book puts a current perspective on his 14 points of quality and covers related concepts such as his Complete Transaction Rating (CTR). CTR provides a simple way of measuring the competence of employees and suppliers. CTR is given a value of 1 if the supplier does what he or she was supposed to do. (That means the supplier completely did what was agreed. This includes components like price, schedule, and quality.)
A lot of the book is dedicated to his stories about his company Philip Crosby Associates, and how they try to use his principles. It makes it clear how those of us trying to provide consulting, training, or service can put his ideas into practice.
Crosby, Philip B., 1996. Quality is Still Free New York: McGraw-Hill.
----Mary Sakry
© 1998 The Process Group